Invasions by non-native forest insects can have catastrophic consequences for trees in natural and managed settings. Many invading bark and woodboring insects (borers) are suspected to have initially arrived within wood-packaging materials, a major component of international trade and containerized cargo. Despite phytosanitary measures adopted by many countries involved in international commerce, interceptions of non-native borers at ports of entry have continued in recent years, posing risks to trees in recipient countries. Before establishment of a pest can take place, however, conditions must first be suitable for insects to survive transit. Here, we forecasted development of select borer species based on weather conditions along international shipping routes and compared those phenological predictions with historical interception data from port inspections. Our findings can potentially help guide the timing of such inspections, which are resource-limited and account for only a small fraction of annual imports.
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