Assessing future habitat suitability for at-risk butterflies in a changing climate using species distribution modeling

Climate change and other global change stressors are causing worldwide declines in insects. Butterflies have been affected by warming temperatures, extreme weather events, and more. Many species across the United States are being listed as species of conservation concern, at-risk, threatened, or endangered. Most of these species lack information on how they may respond to the effects of climate changes.

The White Mountain fritillary (Boloria chariclea montinus), an endemic butterfly inhabiting the alpine zone of the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire, could be particularly vulnerable; its high elevation northeast habitat is highly exposed, and a highly sensitive habitat specialist. Assessing the future suitable habitat of these species will provide crucial information to aid in informing decisions related to federal and state protection, such as the Endangered Species Act.

We used species distribution modeling based on observation data collected from standardized surveys covering the range of the White Mountain fritillary. Current and future (2041-2100) climate data (800m resolution) came from adaptwest. We used the ‘enmSdmX’ R package to create an ensemble SDM given the small range the species. Our models estimated a severe reduction of future habitat within the species’ historical range.

Incorporation of our species distribution model outcomes, coupled with life history information and ongoing research being conducted by partners, offers comprehensive insights to be used for conservation planning. With this information, managers can develop proactive and adaptive strategies to protect the White Mountain fritillary and its habitat from human-induced stressors to ensure the persistence of this species.