D3421: Stochastic modeling of Asian long-horned beetle invasion

The Asian long-horned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in an invasive wood-boring pest in the eastern United States. It destructively feeds on maples and other hardwood trees, often killing its host and disrupting native ecologies. A multi-institutional effort has been made to mark the presence and distribution of the beetle in the US states. Currently, metapopulation models are used to calculate infestation rates based on tree species, type of land usage, and patch size. Utilizing raw field data, we have constructed several models to evaluate factors influencing beetle spatial distribution, identify high-risk areas, and anticipate its spread. Spatial stochastic models were used to understand the dynamics between regions based on infestation level, host availability, and proximity to other infestations, as well as predict long-term spread patterns of the beetle. We also used patch models to understand infestation spread based on the presence/absence of an infested neighbor or region.