Economic impact of the invasive spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicauta, Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) In the two largest grape production areas of New York

The Spotted Lanternfly (SLF), native to Asia, feeds on over 100 U.S. plant species. Since its detection in Pennsylvania in 2014, SLF has rapidly increased in density, economic impact, and geographical spread. Pennsylvania growers faced substantial losses early on, with some vineyards needing replanting due to vine death. As of early 2024, New York State (NYS) grape growers had not reported SLF-related issues. However, in July 2024, state agriculture officials confirmed the presence of SLF in the Finger Lakes region, alarming local grape growers as this was the first instance of SLF near commercial vineyards in the area. Despite its rapid spread, significant advancements have been made in cultural, biological, and chemical control strategies to manage and mitigate the risks and losses associated with SLF. This study aims to estimate the potential economic impact of SLF in New York State's (NYS) two largest grape-growing regions. We hypothesize that NYS growers, learning from Pennsylvania's experience, will adopt a risk-averse approach and be better prepared to combat SLF. Comprehensive information on SLF is crucial for informing growers, stakeholders, and policymakers about the potential economic losses in NYS grape production. If left uncontrolled, economic losses in the two largest grape production regions could reach $1.5 million, $4 million, and $8.8 million in the first, second, and third years of infestation. This highlights the urgent need for effective management to mitigate SLF's impact on agriculture. Future research should establish economic thresholds and conduct cost-benefit analyses of pest control measures in NYS grape production.