Real-time forecasts of phenology and climate-based establishment risk for invasive insects

Methods and tools for forecasting the risk posed by invasive insects in rapidly changing climates in the United States are urgently needed. The USPest.org decision-support system, hosted by the Oregon IPM Center at Oregon State University, maintains a suite of predictive models to help understand regional and national risks posed by pests. This presentation will focus on the suite of spatial models found at https://uspest.org/CAPS (N=17) that produce short-term forecasts of the risk of invasive insects being present and their seasonal development where climates are suitable for establishment. Models are run every 2-3 days to stay current and produce forecasts for the entire calendar year. Example forecasts for two high-priority invasive insects, the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula White) and emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire), will be shown to illustrate how predictions may support early detection efforts and the management of existing populations. Additionally, we will discuss efforts to deliver and communicate model forecasts for key pests in a range of user-friendly, readily accessible formats at the USA National Phenology Network (https://www.usanpn.org/data/forecasts) and to solicit phenological observations to conduct additional forecast validations. In-person training and online material will complement the accessibility of our platform